Fire SlimesTier 1
at EVO Japan Regional
decks
7
(10.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
30
14-14-2
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
52.1%
avg ELO +0.8 per match
expected value
51.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
52.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1191
· median 1216
· range 1063–1287
(7 pilots with an ELO rating)
1002
Q1 1156
Q3 1313
1688
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
29% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Razorgale | 12.5% | 5 | 3-1-1 | 70.0% | 61.1% | 63.3% | +7.7 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 10.9% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 54.9% | +3.7 |
| Fire Aggro | 7.8% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Wind Allies | 7.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.1% | -2.7 |
| Slimes | 6.2% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 46.7% | -2.5 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.2% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.0% | -0.7 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 56.5% | +6.2 |
| Water Allies | 4.7% | 4 | 1-2-1 | 37.5% | 43.8% | 42.2% | -5.0 |
| Water Crux Mage | 4.7% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 64.5% | +13.9 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 4.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 3.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.0% | -16.1 |
| Fire Exia | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Wind Vanitas | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.6% | -15.0 |
| Water Umbra Diana | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 7 from this event
The 7 public Fire Slimes decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
